[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST OFF THE W AFRICA COAST EXTENDING FROM
16N22W TO 6N28W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS JUST AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFIED MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. COMPUTER MODEL DATA ALSO SHOWS THE WAVE ALIGNS
WELL WITH A MID-LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT CAN BE
TRACKED ACROSS THE ATLC IN THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 14N
ALONG 15N12W ACROSS GUINEA TO NEAR 8N20W 6N32W. ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 6N32W TO 2N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-11N BETWEEN 12W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL GULF COAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 86W-92W ACROSS
ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO PUSH N FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INFLUENCED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
THE W ATLC...AND MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N85W WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN MOVES N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND WRN
CARIBBEAN DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AND A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 19N82W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NE OF
THE LOW CENTER NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA TO GRAND CAYMAN. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 73W-81W
MAINLY IMPACTING ERN CUBA. WITH THE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN THE THREAT OF FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES
REMAINS ACROSS JAMAICA...CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N E OF 73W. SOME OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W. MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE S SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING FAIR CONDITIONS S OF 16N ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NRN CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY THE NW PORTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE WRN ATLC
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS N OF 25N W OF 60W SUPPORTING BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH TO THE E IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 23N69W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA NEAR
21N76W ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS S OF 24N BETWEEN 72W-79W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 31N52W 26N57W
THROUGH A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 22N64W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
NEAR 18N65W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF
THE SYSTEM FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 56W-63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 350 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 23N. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1026
MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO W OF THE AZORES. A
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FARTHER E CENTERED BETWEEN THE COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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