[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N82W...ABOUT 190 NM
TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...AND 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF GRAND
CAYMAN. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. HEAVY
RAINS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN SECTIONS OF
HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW CENTER IS CAUGHT UP IN THE BROAD
MONSOONAL TROUGH THAT EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HONDURAS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDED JAMAICA
16 TO 24 HOURS AGO. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE AREA FROM JAMAICA TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND PARTS OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 21N
TO 22N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA AND TO THE
EAST OF LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD OF CUBA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N50W TO NORTHEASTERN
FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT.
ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N56W 13N58W 10N60W
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 10-15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 360 NM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF 20N49W 12N60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 19N
TO 15N13W TO 7N24W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 7N24W 6N43W TO 6N57W
IN NORTHWESTERN SURINAME. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 5N TO 7N MOSTLY BETWEEN 30W AND 31W. DISORGANIZED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 37W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO...THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO TO 24N92W BEYOND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. EARLIER RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE ALONG THE TROUGH EITHER HAVE
DISSIPATED COMPLETELY AND/OR DISSIPATED AND RE-FORMED.
ACTIVE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ARE FROM 29N
TO 31N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W IN FLORIDA JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND. A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N89W.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY A BIT FLAT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1005 MB WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE IS GRABBING ALL
THE ATTENTION AT THE MOMENT. A BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERS
THE AREA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN PARTS
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS SINCE
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY YESTERDAY. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS REMAIN FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE IN THE AREA OF
EASTERN EL SALVADOR...SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND MAYBE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE BASIN...MOSTLY IN THE WATERS
BUT POSSIBLY REACHING THE ISLANDS ALSO...FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN
63W AND 70W. IT RAINED NEARLY EVERYWHERE AROUND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA BASIN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...MOSTLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WATERS

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 41N60W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 27N80W 27N63W BEYOND 33N47W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N49W TO 31N50W. THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 31N50W TO
27N55W TO 25N63W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS DISCERNIBLE ONLY BY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. A 1015 MB LOW CENTER IS NEAR 30N44W. A 1014 MB LOW
CENTER IS NEAR 28N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N42W 24N47W
TO 20N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N40W 23N46W 18N61W.
 NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO
26N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 23W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N31W TO 21N38W TO 15N50W.

F0R ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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