[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N82W...ABOUT 110 NM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. THE LOW IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE E
PACIFIC ACROSS THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER AND THROUGH THE LOW
CENTER TO JUST W OF JAMAICA. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 76W-83W...S OF THE SYSTEM FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
77W-83W...AND NE OF ENE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 67W-75W. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOCUSED
ON THE LOW CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE TOMORROW. HEAVY
RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA...CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS N OR NW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE WAVE DOES CORRESPOND WITH A
WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N54W TO 10N60W MOVING WNW AT ABOUT
5-10 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE S CENTRAL/S WEST ATLC WHERE A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE INDICATED BY
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 17N
ALONG 16N10W ACROSS GUINEA TO NEAR 8N18W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N18W ALONG 7N30W 4N40W 2N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 23W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FLARED UP ACROSS THE NRN GULF
COAST ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH JUST INLAND AND PARALLEL TO THE
COASTLINE FROM A 1009 MB LOW OVER NE FLORIDA TO ERN TEXAS...AS
0F 2100 UTC. ACCORDING TO RADAR DATA THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
OVER NE FLORIDA...SE LOUISIANA...AND ERN TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INFLUENCED BY SURFACE
RIDGING AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W...AND DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE
MOISTURE IS AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING
HIGH CLOUDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT N AND DISSIPATE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS W.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND WRN
CARIBBEAN DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE MONSOONAL TROUGH AND A 1007 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 17N82W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. WIDESPREAD AND SOMETIMES STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING
JAMAICA...CENTRAL AND ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.
THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE MORE OVER THE
UPCOMING DAYS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. A BURST OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
HAS RECENTLY FLARED UP OVER NE NICARAGUA AND ERN HONDURAS...AS
WELL AS NE COLOMBIA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES
VERY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ALOFT...A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MANY OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE SW ATLC NEAR 29N72W. TO THE
IMMEDIATE E...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IMPACTING THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N51W
ALONG 28N54W 25N60W WEAKENING TO NEAR 25N66W WHERE IT BECOMES A
SURFACE TROUGH TO 24N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT
FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 57W-62W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
TO THE E OF THE MAIN DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SUPPORTING A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOWS. A 1013 MB LOW IS NEAR 27N48W MOVING QUICKLY TO THE
NE WITH A BURST OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ITS CENTER. A 1014
MB LOW IS NEAR 29N45W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IT
ALONG 27N43W 22N48W 22N59W 21N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH N OF 22N BETWEEN 35W-44W...AND
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 44W-70W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH JUST N
OF THE AZORES ISLANDS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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