[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET AT 22/0900 UTC IS NEAR
36.7N 66.5W. BRET IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON BRET
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES BRET.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY AT 22/0900 UTC IS NEAR
44.5N 39.9W. CINDY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 25 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON CINDY
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ABOUT 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N26W 11N27W 7N27W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 24W AND 31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 13N54W 9N54W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N83W...PAST THE ISLE OF YOUTH...TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
NEAR 14N84W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION/REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 20N TO CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. OTHER POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA.
IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND WHICH IS RELATED TO THE 21N77W
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
20N...TO 17N2W 19N13W 12N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N29W
TO 6N40W AND 7N49W...INTO NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W
AND 16W OFF THE AFRICA COAST...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 49W
AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO
NEAR 25N100W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W. A SECOND
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS WEAKENING NEAR 22N91W NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN THE COAST AND 100W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO 23N BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
94W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK...AS
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE AREA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N93W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR
22N86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N77W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CUBA. THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN
EVIDENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 21N77W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. RAINSHOWERS
IN GENERAL COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 74W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AROUND
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N83W...PAST THE ISLE OF YOUTH...TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
NEAR 14N84W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION/REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
20N TO CUBA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. IT IS NOT EASY
TO KNOW WHICH PRECIPITATION IS RELATED JUST TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE...AND WHICH IS RELATED TO THE 21N77W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 34N43W
TO 28N55W 20N61W 17N64W 16N62W TO THE WEST OF GUADELOUPE
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION IS IN ADVANCE OF THE 18N52W 9N54W TROPICAL WAVE.
RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN
THE WAVE AND THE 34N43W 16N62W LINE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 67W AND 72W...IN AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N45W TO 33N53W TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N68W...TO
A CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N77W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CUBA. THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN
EVIDENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 31N68W COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W.
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N
BETWEEN 66W AND 71W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 64W AND
69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 21N77W CYCLONIC CENTER. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 34N43W TO 28N55W 20N61W 17N64W 16N62W
TO THE WEST OF GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS IN ADVANCE OF THE
18N52W 9N54W TROPICAL WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE 34N43W 16N62W LINE.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 20N...MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W
TO 30N61W 27N71W...BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST ALONG
26N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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