[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 32W S OF 18N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER SATELLITE WINDS. A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WAS RELOCATED ALONG
13N44W TO 6N47W BASED ON A MID LEVEL ROTATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. WAVE IS MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND
IS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS FROM 22N80W TO 13N81W MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT. LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH THE WAVE ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW
NEAR 19N13W S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N16W TO 11N22W
THEN W ALONG 11N35W TO 10N38W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG
10N50W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
30W-37W AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 41W-57W INCLUDING THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ARE FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 16W-26W AND FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SE OKLAHOMA EXTENDING A RIDGE
AXIS E TO THE GEORGIA COAST AND COVERS THE N GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AND
COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA W INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR PANAMA CITY
THEN INLAND OVER LOUISIANA TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N TO THE N GULF
COAST BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE S GULF
CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF TUXPAN AND E OF COATZACOALCOS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH A 1014 MB
HIGH NEAR 24N86W TO NEAR 24N93W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK RIDGE WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE. THE N PORTION OF THE W
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND OVER THE FAR SW GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 81W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THAT AREA. AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR
21N52W WSW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN TO N OF THE ABC ISLANDS NEAR 14N70W COVERING THE E
CARIBBEAN LEAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN...SEE
ABOVE...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W
ALONG 11N82W INTO S NICARAGUA NEAR 11N84W CONTINUING INLAND OVER
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO S MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N TO THE N
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS E OF 72W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 73W-79W...AND
FROM 9N-15N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND GRADUALLY
MOVE S INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH COULD PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. A
SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT NEAR
11N82W AND TRACK WNW INTO CENTRAL AMERICA SAT AND SUN. W
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN ON SUN WITH THE N
PORTION INTO THE S GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 28N W OF 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W ALONG 30N73W TO 31N78W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA TO N ALABAMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-32N W OF
54W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N50W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N52W THEN WSW ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
18N-23N BETWEEN 50W-54W AND FROM 14N-18N W OF 57W TO OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES THROUGH 32N42W SW
ALONG 25N60W THEN W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FRI AND SAT IN
RESPONSE TO THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER THE W ATLC. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N65W BY
TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net