[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 18N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N45W
TO 5N47W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND IS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS FROM 22N77W TO 13N79W
MOVING WNW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER AFRICA THROUGH A 1004 MB LOW
NEAR 18N13W S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W THEN W ALONG
11N38W TO 10N43W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 27W-36W AND FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 41W-57W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER OKLAHOMA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
E TO OVER S GEORGIA AND COVERS THE N GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER
RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND OVER THE N GULF
COAST STATES INTO THE GULF WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND
TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE S GULF CENTERED JUST N OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 84W-87W
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN
92W-97W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N90W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N53W WSW ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO NEAR THE ABC
ISLANDS COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN LEAVING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND N COLOMBIA ALONG 12N74W 11N81W INTO
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W CONTINUING INLAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL AMERICA TO S MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N TO INLAND OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO HAITI...FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 71W-78W...AND FROM 9N-15N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOVE S INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. EMBEDDED SURFACE LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT AND W OF THE AREA
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 29N W OF 63W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS OVER BERMUDA ALONG 31N73W TO 31N79W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA TO NE ALABAMA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO THE FRONT W OF
60W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N50W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N53W THEN WSW ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N40W SW TO
A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 24N63W THEN W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FRI
AND SAT IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING INTO W
ATLC. SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD ALONG 27N SUN THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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