[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N43W 7N44W 4N46W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE ITCZ FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W...AND FROM 7N TO
10N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N58W 16N61W 13N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN
56W AND 71W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE
OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N58W TO 21N65W TO 14N67W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FORMING FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W AND
56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF GUATEMALA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MEXICO TO
THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...
AND POSSIBLY EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
21N...CURVING TO 23N7W 18N15W 11N17W 9N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N23W TO 7N35W 7N43W...REACHING COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
5N52W. SOME ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THE 10N43W 4N46W
TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
5N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 71W AND
83W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER OF GUATEMALA. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS
FLORIDA FROM 29N80W IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO KEY WEST FLORIDA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN
73W AND 87W...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA INCLUDING THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CUBA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
ARE IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND POSSIBLY EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N58W...REACHES 14N67W IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 71W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ALONG 32N. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL/
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF GUATEMALA. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...GUATEMALA... BELIZE...AND POSSIBLY EL SALVADOR
AND NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N
TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N67W 10N69W
IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 65W AND 66W
IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 16N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS
ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 29N80W IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO KEY WEST
FLORIDA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN
73W AND 87W...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA INCLUDING THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N49W TO 25N58W 21N65W...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 14N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 71W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 29N20W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N27W TO A POSITION THAT IS
ABOUT 170 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N28W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 77W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N498W TO
BERMUDA TO 32N78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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