[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N42W 8N43W 4N44W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE ITCZ FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N57W 16N59W 13N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N58W TO
21N65W TO 14N67W.

A TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 24N86W...INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER.
RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 86W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG
21N...CURVING TO 23N7W 20N13W 12N19W 10N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 10N24W TO 8N33W 5N49W...REACHING THE BORDER OF NORTHWESTERN
FRENCH GUIANA AND NORTHEASTERN SURINAME. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W
AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE TO THE
EAST OF 86W...ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND CUBA
AND BEYOND. RAINSHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS UNDER
THE LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO BETWEEN 98W AND 104W IN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA.
A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST...FROM 140 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE BAHAMAS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN
76W AND 80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N58W...REACHES 14N67W IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ALONG 32N. A TROPICAL WAVE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF GUATEMALA. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND
MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE
MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 82W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...FROM A POSITION THAT IS
140 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N ACROSS CUBA TO 26N...SPANNING THE
BAHAMAS...BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N65W
9N68W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA ALONG 65W FROM THE COAST SOUTHWARD
ARE IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 16N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...FROM
A POSITION THAT IS 140 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE BAHAMAS FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 76W
AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 25N58W
21N65W...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N67W.
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 33N48W 27N57W 22N67W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
OVER THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 29N20W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N27W TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 170 NM
TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N28W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
75W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N48W TO BERMUDA...32N72W...
AND 31N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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