[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N20W
3N40W TO N BRAZIL AT 4N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 11W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 9W-13W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 17W-30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 39W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W.
10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUD WITH RAIN IS OVER SE TEXAS...THE NW GULF...
AND LOUISIANA MOVING E. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. A 70-110 KT
JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH
CLOUD. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SE SURFACE
FLOW WITH MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS FORM A SHEAR LINE FROM JAMAICA AT
18N78W TO NE NICARAGUA AT 14N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15
NM OF THE SHEAR LINE. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER E HONDURAS AND NE
NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES E
OF 66W MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED
INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...MORE SHOWERS TO
BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N53W TO 26N60W 23N65W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO HAITI NEAR 20N72W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 53W-58W. A
1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 27N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 28N12W TO A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 26N18W AND CONTINUES SW TO 22N22W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR
22N26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THIS TROUGH. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
50W-80W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-35W SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOWS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N47W WITH SHOWERS...AND FOR THE SYSTEM
OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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