[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 2N23W
3N37W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 8W-20W AND FROM 4N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 30W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN
AXIS ACROSS S MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ACROSS THE
GULF TO OVER THE SE CONUS OVER ALABAMA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
E GULF INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 27N87W TO
25N92W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING AND
COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE ALOFT IS GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-30N W OF 86W
TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SPREAD E ACROSS ENTIRE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE. THE FRONT WILL SLOW
OVER THE SE WATERS WED AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE S
CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY W TO NW FLOW
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
COVERING THE AREA S OF 20N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WEAK CYCLONIC
TURNING DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
20N70W E OF JAMAICA ALONG 17N81W TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N64W
TO 14N72W INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 65W INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N77W. AN UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN
55W-70W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A COLD
FRONT N OF THE REGION INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N55W ALONG
26N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/NW HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH N OF 25N. A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 35W AND THE ABOVE
SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N23W TO 15N41W SUPPORTING A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
22N27W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WNW TO 24N32W AND A
SECOND 1013 MB LOW NEAR 27N17W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
E ATLC ARE UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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