[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N9W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 33W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 86W SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT AT 25/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR
MOBILE BAY ALABAMA ALONG 24N91W 21N95W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE W ATLC. A SWATH OF
HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IS
NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN 90 NM SE OF A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA ACROSS TAMPA INTO THE GULF TO 26N88W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 24N E OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE N TEXAS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES TO PULL NE THROUGH WED NIGHT PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT SE EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS TO THE NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EARLY WED MORNING AND TO BE E OF THE GULF LATER WED
MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE THROUGH
SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA ANCHORED OVER NW
VENEZUELA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. TRADE WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE
BASIN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AS
SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY USHERING IN ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 16N E OF 82W TO ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED...THEN BECOME
STATIONARY FROM NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
THU EVENING INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA TO INLAND OVER
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE FROM DAYTONA
BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N78W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 57W WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE
AREA BETWEEN 52W-79W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 23N BETWEEN 43W-57W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N41W TO 25N52W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 21N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
21N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO 80W ANCHORED
BY A 1028 MB HIGH ABOUT 150 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND THE COAST OF NW AFRICA
AND CENTERED NEAR 33N16W WITH A SURFACE 995 MB CENTERED NEAR
32N15W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 28N16W TO 25N19W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
E AND CENTRAL ATLC UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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