[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 38W-50W. A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 25/1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRES
LOCATED OVER SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR 20N96W. A WARM FRONT ALSO
EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW PRES ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT LYING FROM THE W FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING AND FROM
FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED MORNING. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WED AFTERNOON. A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS
IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT PARTICULARLY N OF 25N AND W OF 85W.
SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A RIDGE THAT IS DOMINATING
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
AS THE FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM
W TO E ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NLY WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO
8 FT. ALOFT...SW TO W WINDS DOMINATES THE GULF AHEAD OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO NE MEXICO.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA ANCHORED ON AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH SITUATED OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND THE IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS COVERS THE ENTIRE
BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SEEN
ON VIS SATELLITE PICTURES ACROSS THE AREA. GUADALOUPE AND
BARBADOS REPORTED 0.69 AND 0.39 INCHES RESPECTIVELY DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS THE ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS UP TO 40 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS ALONG WITH SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS CORROBORATED THESE WIND
SPEEDS. A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. THIS WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NE OF AREA. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED...THEN BECOME
STATIONARY FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THU
INTO FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N43W THEN
CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 25N55W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN
STRETCHES ALONG 22N64W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1030 MB HIGH PRES NEAR
35N65W IS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT DAY
AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC WED MORNING. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA N OF 28N W OF
72W WED AND WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY...NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
NOTED PER SHIP OBSERVATIONS JUST BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS. A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE CANARY AND THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING SW TO 25N18W. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1100 UTC SHOWED THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRES WITH WINDS OF
20-25 KT. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA EXTENDS NWD OVER THE W ATLC TO 50W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 31N35W TO 15N42W TO
4N50W. A JET STREAM BRANCH OF 70-90 KT IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND EXTENDS FROM 10N37W NEWD INTO NW AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR




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