[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N14W 4N20W EQ33W 2S43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 8S-3N
BETWEEN 28W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-2N
BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC... A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST INLAND OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO
BEYOND THE TEXAS BIG BEND AREA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVERS MOST
OF TEXAS. 20 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50'S OR LESS. THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS STILL IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH 5-10 KT SE SURFACE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
70'S. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SIMILAR SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS AND SE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS
OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS. 20 KT N WINDS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE N OF THE FRONT...WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE N OF THE FRONT AND S OF 25N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N73W. PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN ANTILLES E OF 68W...OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF JAMAICA...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG
THE COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA MOVING W.
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 17N WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE N OF 17N WITH
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
BROAD RIDGE IS PRODUCING WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... SHOWERS TO
MOVE SLOWLY W WITH THE TRADEWINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N63W
TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 30N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N47W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE
TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
30N23W TO 27N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 60W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS...FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO EXTEND OVER THE W ATLANTIC
FROM 30N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE
OTHER TWO COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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