[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM CENTRAL COASTAL LIBERIA TO 3N20W..CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 27W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S39W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF
33W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 33W AND 50W. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 33W TO 8N27W...
AND WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
8N27W BEYOND 15N17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF ABACO ISLAND...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 25N83W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...FOG...AND HAZE COVER THE WATERS AND
COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO
THE EAST OF 88W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 88W. THE CLOUD
COVERAGE AND POSSIBILITIES OF PRECIPITATION AND FOG AND HAZE
ARE COMPARATIVELY GREATER TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ENTIRE
AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT COVER THE WATERS AND ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FROM
19N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W...FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W
AND 77W...AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN EASTERN JAMAICA AND 81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS TOWARD 30N55W. THIS WIND REGIME IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
ABACO ISLAND OF THE BAHAMAS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF ABACO ISLAND...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 25N83W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN ONE CELL OF
CLOUDS FROM 31N TO 32N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 61W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 31N62W TO 29N66W TO 27N70W 26N74W...ACROSS ABACO ISLAND AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ALONG 28N.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N37W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N46W...TO 25N62W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
20N83W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BERMUDA-
TO-ABACO COLD FRONT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 40W. ONE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N20W TO 16N31W TO 4N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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