[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
9N13W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL ALONG 3N20W 1S30W 4S40W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SE GULF...ANALYZED FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 24N88W
CONTINUING AS A WEAK STATIONARY TO 22N95W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
LACKS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...SINCE ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA INTO THE WEST ATLC.
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF INDICATE ANTI-CYCLONIC 5-15 KT FLOW
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND
MOVES OUT OF THE GULF...ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR THE NW GULF AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY IN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDED BY A DRY
STABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N64W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALOFT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. MARINE OBS
ACROSS THE BASIN INDICATE TRADE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE E
OF 83W...WITH HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 70W-78W AND ALSO E OF 63W. OTHERWISE...FAIR
WEATHER IS ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE WEST ATLC...ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W...EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG
28N74W 25N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 80 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
25N. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO BOUNDARIES ARE GENERATING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 67W-74W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS SEABOARD.
STRONG DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC E OF 77W...ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR 30N40W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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