[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191719
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N13W EQ27W 03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN
6W-9W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8S-3N BETWEEN
30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
32N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS N FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N81W 25N90W 23N96W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG
29N81W 22N90W. 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 50'S OVER THE N GULF STATES WHILE IN THE 70'S OVER S
FLORIDA AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND NO HIGH CLOUD IS
NOTED. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE SE GULF OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN ANTILLES E OF 62W...OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-80W...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...MOVING W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. 15-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 17N WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
N COLOMBIA. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE N OF 17N WITH LIGHTEST WINDS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND NO HIGH CLOUD IS
NOTED. EXPECT... SHOWERS TO MOVE SLOWLY W WITH THE TRADEWINDS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE N BAHAMAS N OF
25N W OF 75W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 50W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
...FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MRF/SMM





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