[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 04N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 3N13W TO 1N24W TO 2N29W
TO 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N35W 2N39W...2N42W
3N46W...3N48W 2N52W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF THE EQUATOR
ALONG 53W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
2N7W 3N16W 2N22W 1N27W 1N31W 1N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TO NORTHERN FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N/23N. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE BRANCH OF
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST...WHILE ANOTHER BRANCH POINTS TOWARD
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE
EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FORECAST IS FOR
THE GALE WARNING TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
TO 30 HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST OF 95W FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS
GULF COAST SOUTHWARD...RELATED TO A CLOUD LINE IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 21N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO 19N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 19N76W
TO 18N82W AND EASTERN HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE COAST OF
CUBA ALONG 80W TO EASTERN HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19N68W TO 17N72W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. RAINSHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 16N77W TO 14N81W TO 10N82W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN BROKEN LOW CLOUDS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W
AND 72W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE AREA
OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 26N60W BEYOND
20N73W...HEADING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE FRONT IS MOVING
EASTWARD 5 TO 10 KT...PROBABLY BECAUSE IT LACKS GOOD ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN ORDER TO PUSH IT EASTWARD AT A FASTER
SPEED. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 32N45W TO 26N60W TO
20N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO NEAR
34N18W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 22N20W...TO THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...TO 11N40W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE LAST
FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE
WEST OF THE 32N50W 20N73W COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N31W
TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N37W TO
28N45W TO 26N54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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