[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 6N9W 3N18W 3N41W 1N51W. LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 39W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
19W-29W. CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 12W-18W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NE CONUS AND INTO THE W
ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE S GULF S OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA ALONG 22N89W TO 21N94W
INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES E
HALF OF THE CONUS AND THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1034 MN HIGH OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BANK BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W TO
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA...TEXAS AND MEXICO. THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH SAT ALLOWING
WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF. SE RETURN FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH OVER W GULF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
NEAR CAMAGUEY ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO JUST INLAND OVER
HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE
FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW
ALOFT. FRESH/STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF
MEXICO. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT
MORNING WITH THE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING ACROSS ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SAT AFTERNOON AND SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W ALONG 27N60W TO 24N68W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE
FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC TO 80W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W
ATLC NEAR 17N55W EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND
32N44W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDS S TO 20N E
OF 28W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT THAT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC N OF 16N E OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC COLD FRONT WITH A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGHS NEAR 32N33W AND
JUST S OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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