[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N09W TO 00N39W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 38W AND
42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1039 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO. THIS IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER THE GULF AS
INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NE MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE WINDS OVER THE GULF. SE RETURN FLOW WILL FORM OVER
THE WESTERN GULF WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. WITH
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN N
ATLC...FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW PREVAILS W OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWIND FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE TRADES
OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS N OF THE
TROPICAL BELT...MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 20N. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 985 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
46N51W SW ACROSS 32N59W TO EASTERN CUBA. LATEST ASCAT PASS
INDICATES FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS AND EXTEND FROM 32N51W TO EASTERN
CUBA IN 24 HOURS. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL N OF 28N
E OF THE FRONT THROUGH 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AL




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