[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 05N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 4N10W TO 3N20W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 52W AND
53W IN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TWENTY-FOUR
HOURS AGO NOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS MOVING AWAY FROM AN 18N119W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. PRACTICALLY ALL THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SOUTHWESTERLY...
EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A SHARP SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH TEXAS AND MEXICO ALONG
28N100W TO 23N98W AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE REACHING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NEARBY WATERS.
THE STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO SOUTHERN
BELIZE. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE FROM CUBA ALONG 77W TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF 22N80W 16N84W.
BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHERLY WITH THE GFS MODEL HINTING
AT AN WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED TROUGH FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO
16N77W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN CLOUDS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 20N66W 16N65W 11N62W...AND IN CLOUDS THAT ARE
CURVING TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
17N81W 13N84W 9N82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE AREA
OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W...TO
26N70W...CROSSING LONG ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA TO CUBA NEAR
22N79W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO
SOUTHERN BELIZE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 57W AND 70W...WITHIN 270 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 25N70W
21N77W IN CUBA...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W TO
THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND GREAT INAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 23N35W TO 14N35W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 28N30W. A REMNANT
CLOUD LINE CONTINUES FROM 28N30W TO 24N40W TO 23N50W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST
OF 25W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N27W 25N36W 24N50W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE
EAST OF THE 32N25W 28N30W COLD FRONT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MOVES AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N43W.
A RIDGE GOES THROUGH 33N32W TO THE HIGH CENTER TO 27N56W TO
26N64W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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