[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 5N14W 2N22W 2N37W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 24W-35W AND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 5N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS SHIFTED TO OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND LEAVING THE GULF WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT HAS EXITED THE GULF LEAVING COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE S GULF S OF
LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 22N92W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE GULF ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1043 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES PRODUCING STRONG N TO NE SURFACE FLOW AND BANKING
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS TO OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE STRONG N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THU MORNING THEN BEGIN TO
DECREASE FROM NW TO SE THU THROUGH FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA FROM SAGUA LA
GRANDE TO PUNTA GORDA ALONG 21N85W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W TO OVER N BELIZE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND STRONG NE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
16N60W AND EXTENDS TO OVER PORTIONS OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC.
FRESH/STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF
LINE FROM 11N65W 17N75W TO OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS NEAR
15N87W. THIS SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO GENERATING A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 11N79W TO ACROSS COSTA
RICA/PANAMA BORDER INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SE REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE N GULF OF
HONDURAS LATER THIS MORNING THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EXTENDING AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE REGION 32N67W ALONG 26N73W ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR SAGUA LA GRANDE. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N64W TO 26N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S TO 20N BETWEEN 25W-45W SUPPORTING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N29W TO 26N38W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A SHEAR AXIS TO 24N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
CENTRAL AND E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 65W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
30N48W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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