[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 07N12W TO 03N19W TO 05N28W TO
00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 26W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED E OF THE AREA WITH LATEST ASCAT PASS
INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF. LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG COLD CORE 1041
MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH SHARP SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING OVER THE CENTRAL US REGION...CAA
WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LATEST ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR
NW PART OF THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLANTIC ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE NE WINDS
FRESHENING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...REACHING FROM E CUBA TO THE N GULF OF HONDURAS THU
MORNING WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC...THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

STRONG SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS N OF THE TROPICAL BELT OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ
WHICH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL
BELT S OF 20N. THE STRONG RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS MAINTAINING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 32N68W TO WESTERN CUBA. RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES
FRESH SW WINDS N OF 28N EAST OF THE FRONT...AND FRESH TO STRONG
NW TO N WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO 32N59W TO EASTERN CUBA BY THU AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N34W TO 25N13W THEN A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS
FROM THE FRONT S OF A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR
30N48W...TO 23N61W. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN 24
HOURS...THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THAT TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AL




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