[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 6N10W 3N23W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 38W-43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 6N20W TO
3N33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF
AND OVER SE CONUS WHICH IS STILL GIVING PARTS OF SE WINTER
WEATHER. THE ORIGINAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER THE W
ATLC WITH A RE-ENFORCING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS WITH A SECOND FRONT WELL INLAND OVER
ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA. THE LEADING SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A
1004 MB LOW THAT AS OF 11/0300 UTC IS IN THE W ATLC TRAILING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH DAYTONA BEACH TO
TAMPA INTO THE GULF TO 26N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG
21N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHES
OF FOG ARE N OF 27N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND TEXAS. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA
LATER TODAY WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER BEFORE THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL PUSH
IT OUT OF THE GULF ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 9N64W NNE ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL
MOISTURE N OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W
OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 200/225 NM OF
LINE FROM THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO ACROSS CUBA AND HAITI
NEAR 20N79W. FRESH/STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF
THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY
WED BRINGING FRESH NE WINDS THAT GRADUALLY BECOME STRONG BY WED
NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVE OFF THE US COAST EARLIER ON
MON IS IN THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS FROM 33N71W TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH SUPPORTING AT 11/0300 UTC A 1004 MB
LOW NEAR 32N79W AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE
FRONT N TO 29N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 55W-75W AND
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N70W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N54W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO OVER
THE W ATLC WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN 175/200 NM OF
LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO 28N63W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW
JUST E OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REMAINS N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA AND TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N46W
SW ALONG 27N52W TO NEAR 23N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER LEVELS ANCHORED NEAR 23N27W
WITH A SURFACE 1032 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N23W THUS
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER THE ATLC E OF FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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