[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N08W TO 04N20W TO 02N30W TO
03S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5S-4N BETWEEN
30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 29N84W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N86W 23N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 21N93W 18N94W. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE NOTED ALONG
THE FRONTS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF ALONG THE
COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA N OF 27N W OF 90W. 20 KT CYCLONIC
WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE LOW OVER THE NE GULF. TEMPERATURES
FROM E TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE IN THE 40'S WHILE
TEMPERATURE IN THE WARM AIR MASS OVER W CUBA ARE IN THE 80'S.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE GRADIENT TO
SIGNIFICANTLY TIGHTEN OVER THE W GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
PRODUCE 25-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS W OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
6N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER N
COLOMBIA...PANAMA ...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
6N-12N BETWEEN 75W-85W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. SCATTERED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVERS THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

N ATLANTIC OCEAN S OF 32N...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AT 31N48W TO E OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG 25N60W 23N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A 1028
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N25W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS W
OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF 50W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO 31N42W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W
ATLANTIC AN BE NEAR 31N74W IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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