[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071646
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N08W TO 02N30W TO 01N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
W OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE SE PORTION
OF THE GULF LAST NIGHT. EARLY MORNING SHIP AND ASCAT DATA TO
SHOW 20 KT NW FLOW OVER THE FAR SE GULF...BUT THIS HAS STARTED
TO DIMINISH IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS OVER THE NE WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR COZUMEL
MEXICO AS IT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR
PREVAILS OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THE
MOVED INTO THE AREA...AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER OR DISCERNIBLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING. FURTHER
SOUTH...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF N AND NE FLOW OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS OF
COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
LOOKING AHEAD...TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN S OF 32N...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N68W THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA IS WELL
DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A LARGE AREA OF PROBABLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N. SW
WINDS TO GALE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 50W.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E REACHING FROM 32N63W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE BY EARLY SAT...THEN DISSIPATE LATER SAT. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SAT
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG W TO NW WINDS. FURTHER EAST...A
1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 29N36W. ASCAT
AND BUOY DATA SHOW 15 TO 20 KT WINDS S OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...GENERALLY S OF 18N. A PAIR OF PERSISTENT
WEAK TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA
ALONG 20N NEAR 47W AND 56W...AND THESE WILL LIKELY DAMPEN OUT
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE
AMAZON RIVER DELTA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN




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