[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 7N11W EXTENDING ALONG 5N20W 1N30W
2N42W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN
18W AND 26W...AND FROM 6N TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W
AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE GULF N OF
21N. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AND IS
MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF
07/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF AT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N91W
DISSIPATING TO 20N95W. POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
FRONT. THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF IS ENJOYING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH THAT AS OF 07/0900 MOVED OFF
THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS DIPS INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN OVER NW CUBA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF
07/0900 UTC ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N80W EXTENDING TO 21N84W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 20N87W
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE DOMINATED
BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF
15N E OF 81W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA...AND ALONG A LINE FROM 14N81W TO POINTE FANCHON HAITI
NEAR 18N74W. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING SE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AND IS MOVING
OFF THE SE CONUS...SUPPORTING A 991 MB SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE
REGION AND A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 07/0900 UTC ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 32N66W EXTENDING ALONG 26N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 22N80W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 75W
AND WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 75W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
N OF 28N EAST OF THE FRONT TO 63W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES
THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021
MB HIGH NEAR 29N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 23N53W TO
20N56W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 52W AND
55W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE E FROM 21N44W TO
17N45W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 42W AND
47W. THESE TWO TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SMM/PAW






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