[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 7N11W EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 5N30W 4N40W 2N50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2S TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE W ATLC
OFF OF THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW OVER
GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM THE LOW INTO
THE W ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N86W
29N90W TO 26N95W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 22N97W. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE COLD
FRONT E OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 90W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO MOVE QUICKLY ENE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 16N71W ALONG 14N75W TO 9N76W IS PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
FROM 16N-18N E OF 71W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE OF THE LOW CENTER
OVER S GEORGIA IS ANALYZED ALONG  32N81W 30N76W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST ATLC
N OF 28N W OF 74W. OTHERWISE... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ATLC...WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT S OF 32N.
HOWEVER...AT SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR
32N61W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 28N70W BECOMING DISSIPATING
STATIONARY TO 28N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 45
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1017 MB HIGH IS
ANALYZED NEAR 24N67W. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N25W EXTENDING SW TO 26N39W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT TO 25N46W...THEN BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG 26N49W TO 27N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
E OF THE COLD FRONT. TWO SURFACE HIGHS ARE ANALYZED ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N44W AND
A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 23N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
23N52W TO 16N55W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 18N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SMM/PAW





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