[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N11W EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 5N30W 4N40W 2N50W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1S TO 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA NEAR 30N88W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE W ATLC ALONG
29N84W 29N80W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 27N94W 23N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FRONTS ARE AFFECTING MOSTLY THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 28N.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH CLEAR
SKIES S OF 27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. CONSEQUENTLY...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WNW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 16N71W TO
09N76W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM NW
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E
OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO THE FAR
WEST ATLC N OF 29N W OF 74W...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS ENTERS THE NW BASIN TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 40N...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT S OF 32N. HOWEVER...AT SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 27N72W
BECOMING STATIONARY TO 27N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SECOND COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 32N26W EXTENDING SW TO 25N40W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 25N45W 26N53W AND DISSIPATES
TO 24N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 22N51W TO 15N54W...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 17N. SURFACE
RIDGING IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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