[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
5N10W EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W EQ50W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
REGION SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 27N98W. A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW CENTER
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 29N95W 28N91W 27N85W.
THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN N OF 27N.
COMPUTER MODES SUGGEST THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GAIN SPEED
AS IT TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE N CENTRAL AND NE BASINS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME...AS SURFACE
RIDGING ACROSS THE SE CONUS PROMOTES ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA S OF 27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A RATHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS
THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ALONG 16N67W 14N70W 11N70W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. SPEED CONVERGENCE NE OF THE AXIS IS GENERATING SIMILAR
CONVECTION PLUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 16N E OF 67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR MORE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
ATLC FROM 20-40N...WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE NOTED W OF 44W
S OF 25N...ASSOCIATED TO A FAIRLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JETSTREAK
MOVING OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD WITH AXIS ALONG 36N W OF 47W.
THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N
CENTRAL ATLC ARE SUPPORTING A SET OF TWO COLD FRONTS ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THE
FIRST FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N44W 28N55W 26N67W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ROAM THE
AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT...AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N69W. THE
SECOND FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N24W 26N35W 23N45W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN 35 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THESE TWO FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ADDITIONALLY...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE WESTERN BASIN WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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