[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W ALONG 3N20W
2N30W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR
1S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE GULF SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY TWO
1023 MB HIGHS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND OVER S ALABAMA
GIVING THE GULF E TO SE SURFACE FLOW. A SURFACE LOW OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING AROUND 28N
EXTENDING BETWEEN THE TEXAS COAST TO 89W. A BURST OF MODERATE
CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG 87W FROM 27N-29N. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
N OF 25N AND ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO W OF 95W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE S GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE WITH FRONT IN THE GULF TO BECOME MORE
STATIONARY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SE TOWARDS THE GULF
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
11N69W TO 16N64W. THE AREA SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS UNDER
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
190 NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SIMILAR CLOUDS ARE MOVING WSW S OF
16N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N50W ALONG 28N60W TO
27N70W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N78W. DENSE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN ALSO COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N W OF 42W
AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA IS RIDGING ACROSS THE ABOVE FRONT. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL/E ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ALONG 32N28W 27N35W TO 23N45W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N27W TO 24N36W. AN BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/HUFFMAN



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net