[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N9W 4N16W 4N28W 3N37W 1N48W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 4W-9W AND FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 12W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY WINDS. THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF AT 04/0300 UTC FROM JUST S OF NAPLES
FLORIDA ALONG 25N87W TO 24N90W. THIS FRONT IS BRIDGING A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS AND EXTENDING INTO THE
W ATLC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF A LINE FROM 25N87W 23N93W TO S MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ. THIS IS LEAVING THE S GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL AGAIN TONIGHT. THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT WITH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN 120/150 NM
OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 04/0300 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N61W TO
27N75W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN MIAMI TO
JUST S OF NAPLES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE COLD
FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 20N62W
AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N67W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL/E ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N34W 25N42W TO 25N48W. THE REMNANTS OF A
PREVIOUS FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE E AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 27N34W TO 18N43W. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICS NEAR 9N24W TO BEYOND 32N13W
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE E ATLC N OF 10N BETWEEN
20W-35W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF E
ATLC AND W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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