[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 032358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W ALONG 4N20W 2N30W
2N40W...AND ALONG 2N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WEST
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 6N47W TO 1N45W...HOWEVER THERE IS NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT AT THIS TIME. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 2W-22W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 24W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
CONTINUES INTO THE GULF ALONG 25N85W 25N89W 23N94W ENDING AT THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. THIS FRONT IS DISSIPATING DUE TO A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE N OF 27N THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD OUT
OF THIS AREA INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ENTIRE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SE
CONUS...GIVING CLEAR SKIES CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N
OF 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES RATHER UNEVENTFUL DUE TO A BROAD AND
DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING SW TO W FLOW ALOFT
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR
ACROSS THE REGION. A SHEAR LINE IS ALONG THE E CARIBBEAN
CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N52W TO 12N65W DELINEATING
CONVERGING NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ALONG
THE SHEAR AXIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM W AND NW OF THE LINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE E CONUS SEABOARD INTO
THE NW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/2100 UTC
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 31N70W TO SE FLORIDA NEAR 27N79W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 170 NM SW OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
REMAINDER OF THE NW ATLANTIC W 0F 49W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH ABOUT 185 NM NE OF ELEUTHERA
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N72W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N36W
28N39W TO 26N44W CONTINUING TO 26N49W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 140 NM E OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
27N34W 22N38W TO 17N43W WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM NE
OF THE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS/GARCIA



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