[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 4N8W TO
2N20W TO 1N40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF
LIBERIA AND THE IVORY COAST FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 1W-14W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 24W-40W...AND S OF
THE EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM N FLORIDA
NEAR 29N83W EXTENDING ALONG 28N85W TO 29N88W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS PROVIDING FOGGY CONDITIONS WITHIN 105 NM OF
THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER AND CALM CONDITIONS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA PROVIDES ZONAL FLOW WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
COVERING THE GULF SUPPRESSING ALL CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO LIFT N OF THE GULF...AND FAIR
WEATHER TO CONTINUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. 30 KT WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF
THE COASTS OF W PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS
CAUSED BY THE TRADE WINDS BANKING MOISTURE ONTO THE ELEVATED
LANDMASS. A SHEAR AXIS ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OVER
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FLARING UP SHOWERS WITHIN 130
NM OF THE VENEZUELAN COAST. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATES A
MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN THIS AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA
PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
72W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN...STRONGEST IN THE NE
CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING MOST DEEP CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N61W TO 31N70W
WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 29N79W FORMERLY THE
PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEING OVERTAKEN BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE N...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N68W TO A 1017 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N77W AND A COLD FRONT TO THE COAST OF GEORGIA
NEAR 31N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TWO BOUNDARIES.
THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
ERN UNITED STATES ALONG 57W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N62W PROVIDING SURFACE RIDGING FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA OF DISCUSSION W OF 50W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BETWEEN 45W-55W. A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
26N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 21N45W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE LOW FROM N OF THE AREA ALONG
32N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 36W-44W FROM
THE COMBINED LOW...STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 21N41W TO 14N50W WHERE IT
BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS ALONG 13N56W TO OVER SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 11N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
COMBINED TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE ALONG 41W. THE REST OF THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST IS UNDER SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1034 MB
HIGH N OF THE AREA AND ENJOYING DRY CONDITIONS. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N AND BETWEEN THE W
AFRICAN COAST AND 30W SUPPORTING THE DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/WALTON






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