[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W
TO 3N20W TO 1N30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S38W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF LIBERIA AND THE IVORY
COAST FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 3W-13W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-4N BETWEEN 17W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 4S-1N BETWEEN 30W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO E TEXAS
ALONG 31N83W 29N90W 30N95W. THIS FRONT IS DRY BUT HAS A
WINDSHIFT AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH. THE MAJORITY OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS IN THE WARD AIRMASS AND HAS 10-15 KT SE
SURFACE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF SUPPRESSING ALL
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
LIFT N OF THE GULF...AND FOR 10-20 KT SE SURFACE TO CONTINUE
WITH FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W. 15-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 25 KT
WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WHERE THE SURFACE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. A BATCH OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 81W-86W. MORE
SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND VENEZUELA
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 60W-65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 16N91W PRODUCING
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE BASIN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR...SOME SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
...AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH THE TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N60W. A 1012 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 19N48W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE
FROM THE LOW TO TO BEYOND 31N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
24N-32N BETWEEN 38W-44W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW. EXPECT FOR LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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