[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N11W TO 03N20W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 33W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 10W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 88W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE PROVIDING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 26N65W
THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD ALONG 26N TO 95W. SHIP AND
BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE S-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15
KT ARE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
NEXT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND
GULF COASTAL PLAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE FAR NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT
THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR
26N65W THAT CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN STRONG NE TO E WINDS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. ALSO OF NOTE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
ADVECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF
13N E OF 74W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED S OF 35N OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS AND W ATLC W OF 60W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE 1021
MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 26N65W. INFLUENCE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS MAINLY W OF 50W PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 32N44W TO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N64W. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N37W THEN SW ALONG 23N45W TO 20N51W WHERE THE FRONT
BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND BEGINS DISSIPATING WESTWARD TO 18N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N
OF 24N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT S OF 24N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 24N40W TO 17N48W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE
AREA FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 36W-48W. SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SE OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM SOUTHERN SURINAME NEAR 02N57W TO 12N53W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS COVER A LARGE AREA WITHIN 400 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE OPEN ATLC WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OCCURRING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN GUYANA AND
WESTERN SURINAME. ELSEWHERE E OF 35W...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N15W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
MOSTLY FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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