[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE
COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W TO 3N20W TO EQ30W TO 1S40W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
12W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N70W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W PRODUCING
10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE GULF ARE NOW IN THE 70'S.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...
...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE
GULF...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES E OVER THE N GULF STATES FROM E
TEXAS TO S GEORGIA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS IS ALSO PRODUCING
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOSTLY VOID OF SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN
MAINLY S OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
63W-73W...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TRADEWINDS TO MOVE PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER TRINIDAD AND
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WHILE THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
HAS CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS MENTIONED...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR
28N70W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N41W 23N50W 21N60W MOVING SE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF 24N. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
39W-47W. IN THE TROPICS... A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF SURINAME
FROM 10N52W TO 6N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER GUYANA...SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 52W-59W. FURTHER E...A 1030 MB HIGH IS W OF
PORTUGAL NEAR 37N17W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N40W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-70W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 40W. IN
THE TROPICS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 9N28W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N31W TO 21N40W WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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