[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N14W TO 02N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 18W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 88W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE PROVIDING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS
NEAR 30N74W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE S-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE LOCATED ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STATIC THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER
THE W ATLC WATERS. THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE NW GULF WATERS BY EARLY TUESDAY AND LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN THIS MORNING WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 30N74W THAT CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES FARTHER SOUTHWARD OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 21/0238 UTC CAPTURED OCEAN
WIND VECTOR RETRIEVALS INDICATING ENHANCEMENT OF THESE NE WINDS
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SIMILAR FILTERING OF NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY SE.
OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IS ADVECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NE AND
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING N OF 15N E OF 70W...
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH
ATLC NEAR 30N74W. INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS MAINLY
W OF 65W PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING FOR THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 58W AND DIPS SOUTHWARD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC. THE EASTERNMOST COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 28N51W TO 21N64W
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND LOSES THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
ANALYZED FROM 32N49W SW ALONG 26N54W TO 23N65W. PRE-FRONTAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE FRONTS
WITHIN 120 NM OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N55W TO 29N49W. SOUTH
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR
06N58W TO 15N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER A LARGE AREA
WITHIN 300 NM EAST AND 150 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH...INCLUDING
INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. ELSEWHERE E OF
42W...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH
OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 35N18W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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