[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N11W TO 03N33W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
THE EQUATOR AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 17W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 90W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE PROVIDING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS NEAR 33N76W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. SHIP AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE S-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS WIND REGIME
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
SETTLES IN OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NW GULF WATERS BY EARLY
TUESDAY AND LIFT BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN THIS EVENING WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 33N76W THAT CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES FARTHER SOUTHWARD OVER THE SW NORTH
ATLC. ENHANCEMENT OF THESE NE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO FILTER
THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY SE. OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ADVECTING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING N
OF 15N E OF 70W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS NEAR 33N76W. INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS MAINLY W OF 66W PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 60W AND DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE
EASTERNMOST COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W
AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 27N55W TO 23N66W. A SECOND REINFORCING
FRONT LAGS WEST OF THE MAIN FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N54W TO
26N64W. PRE-FRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED EAST
OF THE MAIN FRONT WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 22N55W TO 30N48W.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE MAIN FRONT AS IT CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD. SOUTH OF
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM WESTERN SURINAME NEAR 04N57W TO
15N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER A LARGE AREA WITHIN 300 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA. ELSEWHERE E OF 42W...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 35N17W
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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