[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM SW AFRICA AT 9N12W TO THE EQUATOR AT
30W CONTINUING SW TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 3S43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 3S
NORTHWARD TO THE AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN 10E AND 11W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 4N SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
THE SW GULF AT 22N95W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ENE AND
COLLAPSING SE ACROSS FLORIDA BAY. THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR VERY
DRY EXCEPT FOR A NARROW MOISTURE PLUME THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME OF
THE MOISTURE NOW SPREADING E OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER. AT THE LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE...
1025 MB...IS CENTERED OVER THE BORDERS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND
FLORIDA...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW DISSECTING THE GULF TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO AT 20N97W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF
FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE NW GULF OVERNIGHT HAS ALMOST
DISSIPATED OVER THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS...BUT IS
STILL EVIDENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 80W WITH DRY
UPPER AIR AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN JUST S OF PUERTO RICO WITH THE CYCLONE
SHIFTING SE WITH TIME. AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS
NOTED S OF HAITI WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY FLARING.
SIMILAR CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION IS NOTED PASSING ACROSS
WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY. OTHERWISE ONLY TRADE WIND CUMULUS IS
NOTED OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WITH THE NE TO E TRADES EXPECTED
TO INCREASE EARLY THIS WEEK WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS TO THE N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 35W
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE AREA E OF 35W. A
BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM 22N50W TO 30N30W THEN TURNS
SE ACROSS NW AFRICA. AT THE LOW LEVELS RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC ALONG 28N. A TROUGH ORIENTATED N TO S IS
PASSING W THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS ACCOMPANIED BY A NE TO SE WIND
SHIFT AT 20 TO 25 KT BUT ONLY RAIN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE UPPER
LEVELS APPEAR DRY AND IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NELSON






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