[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM SW AFRICA NEAR 9N12W 5N19W 3N28W 1N35W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
GHANA IN W AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR E OF 8W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF INTO THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025
MB HIGH S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA NEAR 29N87W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR MISSISSIPPI WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF
BASIN PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE GULF THIS MORNING
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW GULF. DENSE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES
OF FOG ARE W OF LINE FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER TO TAMPICO
MEXICO. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE N OF 28N W OF 89W TO
THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER AND INLAND OVER MEXICO S OF TAMPICO
TO JUST E OF VERACRUZ. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE N GULF
THROUGH MON WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AND DOWNSTREAM UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERING THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE
AREA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN USHERING SOME PATCHES
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 71W-81W. TRADE
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE N OF THE AREA DRIFTS SLOWLY SE AND STRENGTHENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH IN
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N58W. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES
THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N48W 25N57W OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR
23N63W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS THE AREA S OF 28N
MOSTLY W OF 50W THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. A
LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC WELL N OF THE AZORES
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND INTO E ATLC WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 26W. A JET
STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT IS RIDING N ALONG THE W
PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITHIN 150/250 NM OF LINE FROM 18N56W
TO 29N22W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE
LOCATED JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER... WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM 10N-23N E OF 40W
LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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