[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM W AFRICA FROM 8N11W 3N19W 1N27W ALONG
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-45W THEN S INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
40W-48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
25W-40W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 2N13W TO 1N19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E HALF OF THE CONUS AND THE GULF INTO
THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1031 MB HIGHS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER MEXICO TO OVER TEXAS COVERING
THE W GULF WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE E GULF INTO
THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN LEAVING THE AREA
WITH PATCHES OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE GULF THOUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS
JAMAICA TO NE HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N TO THE FRONT AND TO THE COAST OF
HONDURAS. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED
IN ON FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. THE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
WILL WEAKEN ON THU RESULTING IN DIMINISHED TRADE WINDS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE RE-STRENGTHENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N58W
26N72W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR MELBOURNE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 30NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE
RIDGE BRIDGES THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC W OF
65W INTO GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 48W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N54W
EXPENDING ALONG 26N61W TO 22N69W WHERE TI BECOMES STATIONARY
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE
COLD FRONT N OF 25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N31W GIVING
THE AREA E OF THE 50W FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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