[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA ALONG 6N9W 3N17W 1N26W ACROSS
THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-48W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E HALF OF THE CONUS AND THE GULF INTO
THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
COVERING THE W GULF WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E GULF INTO
THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN LEAVING
THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THOUGH THE
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N80W TO HONDURAS NEAR
16N85W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED IN ON
FRESH TRADE WINDS. THE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL WEAKEN THU
RESULTING IN DIMINISHED TRADE WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. TRADE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE RE-STRENGTHENS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W INTO GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N56W EXPENDING ALONG 25N64W
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 26N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BOUNDARY. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR
29N35W GIVING THE AREA E OF THE 50W FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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