[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131210
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N5W 2N12W ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
19W-32W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER BRAZIL SOUTH
AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR  W OF 37W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 3W-9W
AND FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS/GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE NW ATLC GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY SW TO W FLOW
ALOFT SUPPORTING A FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. DENSE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA S OF 24N E OF 83W TO INLAND OVER CUBA AND S OF 23N TO
INLAND OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
BETWEEN 90W-93W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
28N92W. THE RETURN SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF IS BANKING LOW
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND ALONG THE THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO S OF 24N W OF 95W. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT E TO THE N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON THEN WILL SHIFT NE OF
THE AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NW FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO WED
AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 13/0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY ALONG 20N83W 18N87W THEN S
TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. DENSE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT
AND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 85W.
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NE COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN LIMITING ANY DEEP LAYERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE E INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER HAITI AND JAMAICA TO W
PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY SE WHILE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISH
WED THROUGH FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E. TRADES WILL ALSO DIMINISH
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W TO
OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 13/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N58W TO 24N72W
BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO OVER CUBA
NEAR CAMAGUEY INTO THE CARIBBEAN. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200/250 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITHIN 180/200 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A VERY BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO
THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 24N45W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BUILD E BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE FAR W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL
ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 29N36W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY MOVE SE MON
THROUGH TUE WHILE WEAKENING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW ATLC MON NIGHT ACCELERATING SE AND MERGE WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE FIRST FRONT TUE NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net