[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130554 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 13 2011

...CORRECTION FOR ISSUANCE TIME...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA ALONG 7N10W 3N15W 1N19W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA
BETWEEN 1W-6W...FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 5W-13W...AND
FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS/GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE NW ATLC GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY SW TO W FLOW
ALOFT SUPPORTING A FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. DENSE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA SE OF A LINE FROM 25N80W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 23N83W AND S
OF 24N TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 88W-93W. A
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032
MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS NEAR 28N94W. THE RETURN
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS INLAND ALONG THE THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO
AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 24N W OF 93W.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE E TO THE N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON
THEN WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NW
FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 13/0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA JUST W OF CAMAGUEY ALONG 20N82W 19N86W THEN
S TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. DENSE LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT
AND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 85W.
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NE COLOMBIA. HOWEVER...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE
BASIN LIMITING ANY DEEP LAYERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N78W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N72W. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVERNIGHT THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE SLOWLY SE WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN
NIGHT RESULTING IN N WINDS INCREASING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W TO
OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 13/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N59W TO 26N68W
BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO OVER CUBA
JUST W OF CAMAGUEY INTO THE CARIBBEAN. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A VERY BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO
THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 26N45W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE FAR W
ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC E OF
THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 29N38W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC WATERS GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE BY SUN EVENING THEN SLOWLY MOVE SE MON THROUGH TUE WHILE
WEAKENING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC MON
NIGHT ACCELERATING SE AND MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS FIRST
FRONT TUE NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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