[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 5N9W TO 1N25W TO 5N40W TO
BRAZIL AT 2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2S-2N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF W OF 91W DUE TO RETURN FLOW. 5-10 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER
THE E GULF WHILE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. COMPOSITE
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF COAST.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 50'S OVER THE N GULF STATES TO THE
70'S OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL WINDS PREVAIL WITH
70-90 KT N OF 24N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC ... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 22N78W 19N85W 16N87W. THE FRONT
DELINEATES A WIND SHIFT WITH NO PRECIPITATION. EAST OF THE FRONT
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA NEAR 8N73W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 72W-75W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY S OF
HISPANIOLA .... AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF JAMAICA. MORE
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LOW IS CENTERED
N  OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N74W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO
EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT SHOWERS W OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO CENTRAL
CUBA AT 22N78W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N49W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC  W OF 70W SUPPORTING
THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 25N57W. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC N OF
20N AND E OF 40W SUPPORTING ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF 30N.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO 31N57W
AND EXTEND SW TO THE BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MRF/NAR





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