[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 1N25W
2N31W 5N41W 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 4N26W TO 7N38W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM THE ITCZ TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
29W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
IN WAKE OF RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE THE GULF IS LEFT WITH NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT LEAVING COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE NE GULF MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 90W.
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND THE SE CONUS ANCHORED BY
A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WEAK 1024
MB HIGH INLAND OVER MEXICO W OF TAMPICO. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE S GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N AND
COULD BE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE W TIP OF CUBA TO
TUXPAN MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE GULF THROUGH WED THEN MOVE E AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED. THE NEW FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE ON
THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND AT 08/1500 UTC EXTEND FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA
CLARA ALONG 21N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 18N87W THEN
DISSIPATES TO THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT W OF 84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO E PANAMA. HOWEVER...THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. A
BAND OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75/90
NM OF LINE FROM 13N64W 15N73W TO 18N79W INCLUDING JAMAICA.
SIMILAR CLOUDS/SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE ON WED. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN DUE
TO THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED THEN
DIMINISH ON THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 08/1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W
EXTENDING ALONG 27N74W TO ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN
NEAR SANTA CLARA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A NARROW BAND
JUST E OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS
WELL N OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING E OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS W OF THE FRONT LIMITING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W
OF THE FRONT TO THE FLORIDA COAST N OF MELBOURNE AND WITHIN 60
NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED NEAR 27N57W WITH SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 28N48W. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY LATER THIS EVENING
EXTENDING FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WED AND DISSIPATE
ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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