[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W
WESTWARD ALONG 1N20W EQ30W 1N40W 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-7N BETWEEN
20W-46W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE WEST ATLC. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE IS AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR SE BASIN FROM THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 26N81W TO
2N87W. COMPOSITE DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FRONT AS A
NARROW LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NE BASIN ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR
26N85W. THIS FRONT LACKS OF CONVECTION...BUT RATHER INDICATES A
REINFORCING DROP IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT...AS WELL AS
NORTHERLY GUSTY 15-30 KT WINDS N OF 25. AS THIS FRONT MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST BASIN...
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH AROUND 23N96W. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONTS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 90W DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO DISCUSSION BEGINS TO ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST OVER
THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS WITH CONVECTION ADVECTING MOSTLY THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE W OF 86W.
OTHERWISE...A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT SURFACE...TRADE WINDS
ARE ACROSS MUCH THE BASIN AND BEGIN TO TURN CYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE BASIN...PROVIDING
WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 70W S OF
15N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS HAPPENING OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN N OF
18N BETWEEN 72W-80W. AS THE FLOW TURNS CYCLONICALLY IN THE SW
BASIN...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NICARAGUA W OF 82W SUPPORTING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS IN THIS
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ERN CONUS
SEABOARD...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N75W EXTENDING SW TO THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
26N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WITHIN 40 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION AFFECTING THE W
ATLC BASIN AND THE COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE
...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC AND SUPPORTS A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 30N51W.
THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 72W.
HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EAST
ATLC... SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 32N23W TO 26N30W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES E OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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