[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 5N10W TO 1N20W TO 2N37W TO
BRAZIL AT 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2S-3N BETWEEN 19W-38W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 38W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA TO N OF TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S MEXICO
ALONG 29N81W 28N83W 21N91W 18N91W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
31N86W 25N90W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SHOWERS DUE TO BOTH
FRONTS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 86W MOVING
E. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE W OF BOTH FRONTS TO
90W...AND W OF THE FIRST FRONT S OF 24N IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A GALE IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF FRONT WITH NW
TO N WINDS 30-35 KT. SEAS ARE 8-11 FT. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO
END IN A FEW HOURS BUT 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST THERE OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE 25-30 KT BEHIND THE
FRONTS WHILE...SW 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF E OF THE
FIRST FRONT. THERE IS A 30 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE FROM ONE
SIDE OF THE FIRST FRONT TO THE OTHER OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN GENERAL IN THE 50'S ALONG THE COAST OF THE N
GULF STATES...AND IN THE 80'S OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND THE NW GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS. A 90-130 KT
JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. SOME HIGH CLOUD IS NOTED
OVER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THE NE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR...THE COLD FRONTS TO MOVE TO THE W ATLANTIC AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. 15-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 14N77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
EXPECT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT SHOWERS W OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF NE
FLORIDA FROM 31N78W TO N OF CAPE CANAVERAL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
RAIN W OF FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 29N52W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FROM 36N20W TO 30N26W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 35N7W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S OF
20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N
BETWEEN 20W-50W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 23N26W.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO 31N67W
AND EXTEND SW TO CENTRAL CUBA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND A
GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA





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