[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS AFRICA ENDING OVER
IVORY COAST NEAR 6N5W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC ALONG 6N30W
9N40W 10N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
14W-18W...AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W. 10-15 KT
EASTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS
MOSTLY ENDED. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER
SLIGHT RIDGING IS NOTED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND
SURFACE EASTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER E TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM
20N60W TO W OF TRINIDAD NEAR 11N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 60W-64W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...COSTA RICA...E
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...S PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
SHOWERS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS TO PERSIST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT ...IS N OF
HISPANIOLA ALONG 29N66W 21N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER E...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 30N57W 22N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THIS TROUGH. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 30N34W 23N34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 29N-35W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N34W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE E
ATLANTIC TROUGH. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 58W TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
RAIN. EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC TROUGH TO DRIFT W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC TROUGH ALONG 67W TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net