[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1735 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS AFRICA. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS ALONG THE COASTS OF GHANA AND COTE D'IVOIRE...ENTERING
THE E TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS GUINEA NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING
WESTWARD ON A SNAKE-LIKE PATH ALONG 11N21W 5N30W 9N40W ENDING AT
7N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 100-150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. THIS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE GULF WITH A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
70 NM OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF 20N...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
FAR SE BASIN AND FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 25N E OF 83W. THE REST OF
THE GULF IS COVERED BY LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH A FEW
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLOUDS. THESE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE MOVING WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT E INTO THE WRN ATLC THROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE
SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTERLY W OF
70W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST OF GUATEMALA PROVIDING
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO ALMOST THE ENTIRE
DISCUSSION AREA...EXCEPT THE FAR SE BASIN...WHERE A SLOW MOVING
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM
18N59W TO 11N62W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS E OF 64W S OF 16N. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO ACROSS COSTA RICA
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM ALONG THE COAST WRN
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 62W
SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N76W TO THE SRN
BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 21N73W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. WEAK TO MODERATE DIVERGENCE FLOW
ALOFT N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
N OF 27N BETWEEN 64W-70W. TO THE E OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH...A
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
BETWEEN THE WRN UPPER TROUGH AND A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE NE ATLC. THIS FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 30N56W TO 24N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 170
NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A DISSIPATING 1021 MB LOW IS NEAR
28N33W. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 33N31W TO 28N29W TO 23N34W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 28W-34W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED N OF THE
AZORES NEAR 41N25W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WRN ATLC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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